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Economy Expands, But Why?

Economy Expands 3.5 Percent in Third Quarter, Biggest Growth in 2 Years

The much-awaited turnaround ended the streak of four straight quarters of contracting economic activity, the first time that's happened on records dating to 1947.

The economy grew at a 3.5 percent pace in the third quarter, the best showing in two years, fueled by government-supported spending on cars and homes.

The Commerce Department's report Thursday delivered the strongest signal yet that the economy entered a new, though fragile, phase of recovery.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/10/29/economy-grew-percent-quarter/

Now the explanation:

Growth Figures Demonstrate Economy’s Ultimate Resilience    [J. D. Foster]

The initial estimate pegging third-quarter growth at 3.5 percent is good news. That’s the first substantial expansion in two years. It’s also generally consistent with other data (e.g. a stabilizing housing market, reduced rate of contraction in labor markets) suggesting recovery is at hand.

But don’t pop those champagne corks just yet. The fact is the underlying trend growth was much less than the topline figure suggests. For example, car purchases added a full percentage point to the growth rate. Everyone expected the cash-for-clunkers program to artificially pump up third-quarter consumer durable purchases, by filching them from the future. That future is now, and so auto purchases are likely to be anemic well into 2010, especially as unemployment continues to increase.

Similarly, whatever small effect the $8,000 first-time homebuyers tax credit had on housing, it too served only to pull purchases into the third quarter and reduce such buying well into 2010. Residential real estate swung from subtracting almost 0.7 percentage point to adding 0.5 percentage point. Expect this to strength to evaporate, especially as mortgage rates are now climbing.

http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=MjFmNDg4OTQ4YTQ0MzQ1Nzk2OTc0ZDY2ZTU5YjYyNTI=#at
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