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Don't Trust the NBER and Their Declaration of Recessions

The Recoveryless Recovery

By Randall Hoven

The recession is over, supposedly. The preliminary estimate of the 3rd quarter's Gross Domestic Product was announced Thursday, and it showed the economy growing at an annual rate of 3.5% from July through September, after four consecutive quarters of decline. 

As the Associated Press reported, waiting for the official call from the National Bureau of Economic Research -- specifically, its Business Cycle Dating Committee -- is all but a formality. That's funny; GDP growth was not used as the measure for timing the beginning of this recession. So why would it be used to time its end?

GDP last peaked in the 2nd quarter of 2008. Yet the NBER said the recession started in December 2007, six months earlier. In fact, the NBER declared the recession before we'd even had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, the standard rule-of-thumb for calling a recession. 

Could it be political?  The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee is the "official" caller of recessions.  It looks for peaks and troughs in economic indicators.  It explains its method as follows.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2009/10/the_recoveryless_recovery.html#at

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