Posted by
Defend America on Monday, February 01, 2010 4:19:00 PM
Via Jim Gerahty's Campaign Spot blog on National Review Online:
Is Charles Djou of Hawaii the Sequel to Scott Brown of Massachusetts?
Patrick Ruffini offers an unexpected, and compelling bit of news: in Hawaii, an upcoming special House
election — yes, I know, it seems like there's always a special election
coming up somewhere — has the potential to be "NY-23 in reverse."
Hawaii has no special primary elections, and all candidates run in the general election. A simple
plurality
is required to win. Currently, the HI-1 field features two well-known
Democratic candidates (with another on the way in), and one competitive
Republican candidate, Charles Djou...
The Djou campaign is taking nothing for granted and has a vote goal of 50.1%. Charles Djou is
prepared
to take on a single major Democratic candidate. But we do note that the
Democrats' ability to consolidate around a single candidate is clouded
by the presence of two well-known Democrats from different factions of
the party who are unlikely to drop out and endorse the other. In the
Blue Dog corner is former 2nd District Rep. Ed Case, and representing
the liberal base is State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa who has been
resoundingly endorsed by organized labor and EMILY's List. A third
candidate has recently emerged, State Sen. Will Espero, who is likely
to further split the Democratic vote.
In effect, the HI-1 special can be likened to NY-23 in reverse, with
Ed Case occupying the unenviable "Scozzafava" position and Hanabusa
representing the base of the party. Like Scozzafava, Case has depended
on crossover Republican votes to win elections in the past, support
that is likely to evaporate once voters know there is a real, electable
Republican candidate in the race.
http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=NzA4NjI4NDlkYzE4NjY5Mjc0OWM1NmQ2ZmYzZmZjNzU=