A
little more than 10 years ago (Jan. 17, 2000, to be exact), I began
writing my “Dangerous Dozen” columns about open House seats, and the
recent flurry of retirements means there finally are enough to fill a
list for the 2010 cycle.
The fact that so many of the
districts on this list are currently held by Democrats reflects how
strongly the political landscape is tilting toward the GOP. As always,
races toward the top of the list are the most likely to change party
control, but every race on this list is a serious possibility to flip.
Tennessee’s 6th: With few Democratic officeholders downballot in this Middle Tennessee district that went 62 percent for Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and 60 percent for President George W. Bush in 2004, you can already put retiring Rep. Bart Gordon ’s (D) seat into the Republican column. The GOP primary will select the district’s next member of Congress.
Louisiana’s 3rd. The field hasn’t really started to develop in the race to succeed Rep. Charlie Melancon
(D), but the fundamentals look terrible for Democrats in a midterm
election year with President Obama in the White House. Bush carried the
district in 2004 with 58 percent, and McCain won it with 61 percent
four years later. Only a Republican screw-up could keep this district
blue.
Delaware’s At-Large. Rep. Michael N. Castle
’s Senate run is a double-edged sword for Republicans, since the party
will have a hard time holding his House seat. It isn’t impossible, of
course, but they’ll need an unusually strong nominee (and a strong
political wave) to beat the likely Democratic nominee, former Lt. Gov. John Carney.
http://www.cqpolitics.com/wmspage.cfm?docID=news-000003287668