President Obama’s chief counterterrorism adviser, John Brennan, is
once again drawing criticism. This time, Brennan’s remarks concerning
the Pentagon’s latest Gitmo recidivism study have come under scrutiny.
The Pentagon’s most recent study on Gitmo recidivism concluded that
20 percent of detainees have either been confirmed as, or are suspected
of, returning to terrorism. Brennan cited the 20 percent figure in a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and
other congressional leaders earlier this month. Brennan explained that
this figure “includes 9.6 percent of detainees who are confirmed
recidivists and 10.4 percent of detainees who the Intelligence
Community suspects, but is not certain, may have engaged in recidivist
activities.”
While speaking at the Islamic Center at New York University on
Saturday, Brennan again cited the 20 percent figure, but downplayed its
significance. “People sometimes use that figure, 20 percent, say 'Oh my
goodness, one out of five detainees returned to some type of extremist
activity,'” Jake Tapper of ABC News quotes Brennan as saying.
“You know, the American penal system, the recidivism rate is up to
something about 50 percent or so, as far as return to crime. Twenty
percent isn't that bad,” Brennan added.
As Tapper notes, Brennan’s comments led to more criticism by leading Republicans, including Senator Lindsey Graham.
The problem is that terrorism is not an ordinary crime, so comparing
Gitmo recidivist rates to recidivist rates for ordinary criminals is
very much like comparing apples and oranges. A serial thief, for
instance, is not nearly as threatening as a former Gitmo detainee who
blows himself up in Iraq, killing 13 Iraqis and wounding dozens more.
In addition, the 20 percent figure is just the latest estimate – which has risen dramatically in the past 18 months. As I’ve written previously:
http://weeklystandard.com/blogs/john-brennan-gitmo-recidivism