Posted by
Defend America on Tuesday, February 16, 2010 11:41:54 AM
Now IPCC hurricane data is questioned
By
Andrew Orlowski
More trouble looms for the IPCC. The body may need to revise
statements made in its Fourth Assessment Report on hurricanes and
global warming. A statistical analysis of the raw data shows that the
claims that global hurricane activity has increased cannot be supported.
Les Hatton once fixed weather models at the Met Office. Having
studied Maths at Cambridge, he completed his PhD as meteorologist: his
PhD was the study of tornadoes and waterspouts. He's a fellow of the
Royal Meteorological Society, currently teaches at the University of
Kingston, and is well known in the software engineering community - his
studies include critical systems analysis.
Hatton has released what he
describes as an 'A-level' statistical analysis, which tests six IPCC
statements against raw data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric
(NOAA) Administration. He's published all the raw data and invites
criticism, but warns he is neither "a warmist nor a denialist", but a
scientist.
Hatton performed a z-test statistical analysis of the period
1999-2009 against 1946-2009 to test the six conclusions. He also ran
the data ending with what the IPCC had available in 2007. He found that
North Atlantic hurricane activity increased significantly, but the
increase was counterbalanced by diminished activity in the East
Pacific, where hurricane-strength storms are 50 per cent more
prevalent. The West Pacific showed no significant change. Overall, the
declines balance the increases.
"When you average the number of storms and their strength, it almost
exactly balances." This isn't indicative of an increase in atmospheric
energy manifesting itself in storms.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/15/hatton_on_hurricanes/