Posted by
Defend America on Thursday, February 25, 2010 11:32:11 PM
Another Democratic incumbent trailing in the polls
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
02/25/10 3:09 PM EST
Add
New Mexico to the list of states (Arkansas, Indiana, Massachusetts,
North Dakota) where polling has shown Democratic incumbents behind
Republican challengers. The Democratic polling firm PPP shows
New Mexico 2nd district Democrat Harry Teague trailing Republican Steve
Pearce by a 43%-41% margin. That’s insignificant statistically but, in
my view, significant politically, because incumbents usually do not
trail challengers and can usually be expected to top 50% in polling;
after all, every House member has won an election less than two years
before the poll was taken. Teague carried the 2nd district 56%-44% 15
months ago. There’s a mitigating factor here: Pearce was the incumbent
in this district from 2002 to 2008, and in the Democratic year of 2006
won reelection by a 59%-40% margin against a low-spending Democrat. In
2008 he ran for the Senate and lost 61%-39% to Democrat Tom Udall, and
in that contest failed to carry the 2nd district.
Obviously the political climate has changed markedly in New Mexico
in the last 15 months, and while Teague may still end up holding the
district he is certainly in far weaker condition than he was in
November 2008. New Mexico was one of the success stories of the Obama
campaign in 2008; one of the closest states in the 2000 and 2004
presidential elections went Democratic by a 57%-42% margin. New Mexico,
like most of America, doesn’t look as Democratic now.
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Another-Democratic-incumbent-trailing-in-the-polls-85383732.html