Posted by
Defend America on Friday, March 05, 2010 4:30:46 PM
Update, 4 PM Friday: Eric Massa's planned
resignation takes him off the list. There are now 37 Democrats who
voted nay in November who will be Democrats when (if?) the next vote
occurs. With the House vacancies being what they are now, Speaker
Pelosi will need 216 votes to pass the bill.
...
The first group I label, "Very Hard to Persuade," i.e. it will be no
little feat to bring that member from a nay to a yea. I put a member in
there if:
(1) The member has communicated something negative about the Senate bill, or the pending House-Senate compromise.
(2) The member comes from a district where John McCain won 60% or more of the vote, and is running for reelection.
(3) The member has a lifetime National Right to Life Committee (NRLC) score greater than 80%.
Several of these members possess more than one of these qualities. I
listed the above qualities in what I think their order of salience is.
A member's most salient quality is the one I've listed next to his name
below.
I count 24 in this group:
1. Jason Altmire (PA-4) (
communication)
2. John Barrow (GA-12) (
communication)
3. Dan Boren (OK-2) (
communication)
4. Allen Boyd (FL-2) (
communication)
5. Bobby Bright (AL-2) (
communication)
6. Travis Childers (MS-1) (McCain won 62%)
7. Artur Davis (AL-7) (
communication)
8. Lincoln Davis (TN-4) (McCain won 64%)
9. Chet Edwards (TX-17) (McCain won 67%)
10. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (SD-AL) (
communication)
11. Tim Holden (PA-17) (NRLC score of 87%)
12. Larry Kissell (NC-8) (
communication)
13. Frank Kratovil (MD-1) (
communication)
14. Dennis Kucinich (OH-10) (
communication)
15. Jim Marshall (GA-8) (
communication)
16. Mike McIntyre (NC-7) (NRLC score of 93%)
17. Mike McMahon (NY-13) (
communication)
18. Charlie Melancon (LA-3) (
communication)
19. Walt Minnick (ID-1) (
communication)
20. Collin Peterson (MN-7) (
communication)
21. Heath Shuler (NC-11) (
communication)
22. Ike Skelton (MO-4) (
communication)
23. John Tanner (TN-8) (
communication)
24. Gene Taylor (MS-4) (
communication)
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2010/03/counting_the_heads_of_house_de.html