Posted by
Defend America on Tuesday, March 09, 2010 6:56:51 PM
Via the Corner blog:
Iraq Elections: Now the Fun Begins . . . [Michael Rubin]
Yesterday's
elections in Iraq appear to have gone smoothly, and preliminary
estimates suggest 55–60% turnout. Now, however, the rough patch will
begin. Early estimates suggest incumbent Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki
won perhaps a third of the vote with former interim Prime Minister Ayad
Allawi second. Neither, however, came close to a majority. Maliki may
have won just one-third. Now the horse-trading will begin.
The CIA favors Ayad Allawi, but should proceed with caution. While
Allawi paints himself as the secularist and liberal hope, he has a
past, not just as a Baathist in the 1970s, but also as interim Prime
Minister in 2004–2005. Iraqis are upset with corruption — and many of
Maliki's ministers are expert at it — but Allawi hemorrhaged popularity
after his term precisely because his administration became so tainted
with corruption. And while Allawi is attractive to many in the United
States because he is the least pro-Iranian, his ties to Syria — the
gateway for foreign fighters entering Iraq — is troubling. He is
unpopular among many Shi'a for ordering the assault on Najaf in
November 2004 although, frankly, I'm glad he did so given the
importance of that move in neutralizing Muqtada al-Sadr. Allawi has
also lost credibility by living in the Green Zone
, when he's in Iraq at all: That's good for his relations with U.S. diplomats, but bad for relations with Iraqis.
Maliki may have won the plurality, but Iraqis have a history now
(thankfully) of coalescing against the incumbent fearing he will become
too powerful. This could open the path for a third party — perhaps
someone from the Iraqi National Alliance, or perhaps someone from
Allawi's or Maliki's list, but not either of them — to become a
compromise candidate. In addition, all these lists are fractious: The Kurds
may enforce party loyalty, but the Shi'a can't and so we might have
some candidates bolt and announce that they will go their own way.
http://corner.nationalreview.com/post/?q=OGVhNWI2NGUzYzY2MzJhODZhZTgyMmIwOTYwMWRkZTI=
Via Institute for War and Peace Reporting:
Post-Election Political Deadlock Expected
Analysts, politicians concerned over security and power-sharing after parliamentary vote.
By Ali Kareem in Baghdad and Hemin H Lihony in Sulaimaniyah (ICR No. 326, 5-Mar-10)
Iraq is headed for a post-election political deadlock that could lead
to security problems and deepen sectarian rifts, politicians and
analysts say.
The Iraqi constitution states that a new government should be formed
within a month of election results being certified. But the usual
delays caused by parties horse-trading over the creation of a ruling
coalition will be exacerbated this time around because there is likely
to be good deal of protracted deal-making over the appointment of a
president who, unlike in the past, will have substantial power.
Some politicians and analysts worry that the power vacuum could be exploited by extremists.
http://iwpr.net/?p=icr&s=f&o=360964&apc_state=henh