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I Always Enjoy Reading Michael Barone Count All the Numbers and Make Projections

Projections from the House's "deem to pass" roll call

By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
03/18/10 5:21 PM EDT

The House voted this afternoon by a 222-203 margin to pass the “Slaughter solution” rule authorizing a single vote on the Senate health care bill which the House leadership wants to send to the president for signature plus the reconciliation health measure the House leadership wants to send to the Senate.

This victory for the Democratic leadership makes it appear that they are on the verge of rounding up the required 216 vote-majority (of the current 431 House members, 253 Democrats and 178 Republicans). But the House leadership, of either party, almost always wins rule votes.

An analysis of the votes cast for and against the rule, together with an examination of members’ public statements and political situations, suggests that the House leadership is still significantly short of 216 votes on final passage, and that opponents of the view have a reservoir of potential noes from more than the 38 Democrats needed to defeat the measure.

Here’s my analysis:

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/blogs/beltway-confidential/Projections-from-the-Houses-deem-to-pass-roll-call--88465682.html

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