Posted by
Defend America on Monday, March 01, 2010 12:59:13 PM
UN's climate link to hurricanes in doubt
Jonathan Leake, Environment Editor
Research by hurricane scientists may force the UN’s climate panel to
reconsider its claims that greenhouse gas emissions have caused an increase
in the number of tropical storms.
The benchmark report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
said that a worldwide increase in hurricane-force storms since 1970 was
probably linked to global warming.
It followed some of the most damaging storms in history such as Hurricane
Katrina, which hit New Orleans and Hurricane Dennis which hit Cuba, both in
2005.
The IPCC added that humanity could expect a big increase in such storms over
the 21st century unless greenhouse gas emissions were controlled.
...
However, the latest research, just published in Nature Geoscience, paints a
very different picture.
It suggests that the rise in hurricane frequency since 1995 was just part of a
natural cycle, and that several similar previous increases have been
recorded, each followed by a decline.
Looking to the future, it also draws on computer modelling to predict that the
most likely impact of global warming will be to decrease the frequency of
tropical storms, by up to 34% by 2100.
It does, however, suggest that when tropical storms do occur they could get
slightly stronger, with average windspeeds rising by 2-11% by 2100. A storm
is termed a hurricane when wind speeds exceed 74mph, but most are much
stronger. A category 4 or 5 hurricane such as Katrina generates speeds in
excess of 150mph.
“We have come to substantially different conclusions from the IPCC,” said
Chris Landsea, a lead scientist at the American government’s National
Hurricane Center, who co-authored the report.
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7044158.ece